2020年房屋销售将激增

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NATIONAL MARKET UPDATE

全国市场更新

At the National Association of Realtorsconvention, their chief economist predicted new home sales will hit a13-year high in 2020, up 11%, to 750,000. Existing home sales, at 5.56 million,will be the highest since 2017.

Freddie Mac's chief economistfeels "the steady improvement of the housing market is areassuring sign that the economy is on solid ground heading into nextyear," noting "purchase mortgage applications rose 15%over...a year ago."

Friday, the NationalAssociation of Home Buildersblog posted,"lowermortgage rates...and a healthy job market" helped push the minorityhomeownership rate almost a percent higher than a year ago, to 48.3% in Q3.

在全国房地产经纪人协会(NationalAssociationofRealtors)大会上，他们的首席经济学家预测，到2020年，新房销售将达到13年来的最高水平，增长11%，至75万套。目前的房屋销售额为556万套，将是自2017年以来的最高水平。房地美（Freddie Mac’s美国最大的两家提供住房抵押贷款的金融机构之一）首席经济学家认为，“房地产市场的稳步改善是一个令人放心的迹象，表明美国经济正稳步进入明年。”他指出，“购买抵押贷款的申请比一年前增长了15%。”周五，全国房屋建筑商协会(NationalAssociationofHomeBuilders)的博客上写道，“较低的抵押贷款利率……和一个健康的就业市场”，推动少数人群住房拥有率比一年前高出近一个百分点，第三季度达到48.3%。

REVIEW OF LAST WEEK

上周回顾

TRADE WINDS BLOW DOW PAST 28,000... Investor expectations that theU.S. is close to a phase one trade deal with China sent the Dow over 28,000for the first time ever, with the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq also reaching newhighs.

White House economic advisor LarryKudlow called negotiations between the two countries "veryconstructive," but added that although the President "likes whathe sees, he's not ready to make a commitment...just yet."

Meanwhile, consumers are stillwilling to spend, with Retail Sales up 3.1% over last year. Industrial Productiondeclined, but at a slower rate, and the Consumer Price Index drifted closer tothe Fed's target 2% inflation rate.

The week ended with the Dow UP 1.2%, to28,005; the S&P 500 UP 0.9%, to 3,120; and the Nasdaq UP 0.8%, to 8,541.

The bond market stayed cautious ontrade, which helped support prices. The 30YR FNMA 4.0% bond ended UP .23, at$103.75. The national average 30-year fixed mortgage rate gained asmidge, but is more than 1% below a year ago, in Freddie Mac's Primary MortgageMarket Survey. Remember, mortgage rates can be extremely volatile, so checkwith your mortgage professional for up-to-the-minute information.

RealPage reports that since1850, the U.S. household size has been shrinking, but that trend has finallyreversed. The number of people in the average U.S. household rose to 2.63 in2018, up 6% since 2010.

贸易风/信风将道琼斯指数吹过2.8万点。投资者对美国即将与中国达成第一阶段贸易协议的预期，首次推高道指逾2.8万点, 与此同时标普500指数与纳斯达克指数都达到新高。

白宫经济顾问拉里·库德洛（Larry Kudlow）称两国之间的谈判“非常有建设性”，但他补充称，尽管总统“喜欢他所看到的，但他还没有准备好做出承诺……”。

与此同时，消费者仍然愿意消费，零售销售额比去年增长了3.1%。工业生产下降，但速度较慢，消费价格指数更接近美联储的目标2%的通货膨胀率。

本周尾盘，道琼斯指数上涨1.2%，至28,005点；标普500指数上涨0.9%，至3,120；道琼斯指数上涨0.8%，至8,541。

债券市场对交易保持谨慎，这有助于支撑价格。30年期的FNMA4.0%债券收盘报103.75美元，收益率为0.23。在房地美（Freddie Mac）的主要抵押贷款市场调查中，全美30年期固定抵押贷款平均利率大幅上升，但较上年同期下降了逾1%。谨记，抵押贷款利率可能是非常不稳定的，所以想你的抵押贷款专家咨询最新的信息。

据《Real Page》报道，自1850年以来，美国家庭规模一直在缩小，但这一趋势最终得到扭转。

2018年，美国家听平均人数上升到2.63人，比2010年增长了6%。

THIS WEEK'S FORECAST

本周预期

HOME BUILDING, EXISTING HOME SALES UP,FED MINUTES OUT... The forecasts call for Housing Starts and BuildingPermits to keep gaining for October, while Existing Home Sales moveup to 5.5 million. We'll also look at the FOMC Minutes from the Fed'slast meet for insight on rates.

NOTE: Weaker economic data tends to sendbond prices up and interest rates down, while positive data points to lowerbond prices and higher loan rates.

房屋建筑，现有房屋销售上升，美联储会议记录公布。预计10月房屋开工和建筑许可将持续增长，而现有房屋销售量将上升至550万。我们还将查看美联储上次会议的FOMC会议记录，以了解利率问题。

注：疲弱的经济数据往往会退稿债券价格，降低利率，而正面数据则显示债券价格较低，贷款利率较高。

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